The Iran Shock Is Not Over

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz six months ago, the world seemed on the verge of an energy crisis that would upend economies, governments, and much else. It was, as Meghan O’Sullivan and Jason Bordoff pointed out in Foreign Affairs at the time, the largest disruption of global energy flow in history.

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The world’s ability to manage that disruption has been surprising—the crisis many expected has not come. But in just the last few years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the fits and starts of the green transition, and the AI buildout have remade energy markets and the politics undergirding them—and shown energy to be a devastating economic weapon. Bordoff and O’Sullivan have mapped out this new energy order across a series of essays for Foreign Affairs. They warn that the relative stability of recent months cannot be cause for complacency.

Bordoff is director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and was senior energy adviser in the Obama administration. O’Sullivan is director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center and was the deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration. Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke to them on Tuesday, September 8, about the future of the Strait of Hormuz; China’s clean-energy dominance and the Trump administration’s Venezuela oil deal; and how the return of the energy weapon is transforming geopolitics and national security.

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Sources:

“The Long Shadow of the Iran Shock” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“The Return of the Energy Weapon” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“The Iran Shock” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“How Venezuela Becomes a Quagmire” by Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“Green Upheaval” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“The Age of Energy Insecurity” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

“Green Peace” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan

This episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview was produced by Adelaide Parker, Adrian Feinberg, Ben Metzner, and Kanishk Tharoor, with audio engineering by Todd Yeager and original music by Robin Hilton. Special thanks to Irina Hogan.

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