22 mins read

The Fog of Tech

Mara Karlin, a defense policy expert who served as senior national-security official in multiple American administrations, makes an authoritative case that war planners tend to be overconfident about their ability to predict how new tools will shape the battlefield—blinding them to the unchanging realities of war. Using examples from Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran, Karlin shows how this “technology trap” leads to false assumptions about the future of war.

20 mins read

The New Energy Stalemate in Ukraine

Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and former energy scholar at Moscow’s Russian Academy of Sciences, and Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas expert at Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center, argue that Russia and Ukraine are locked in an energy war that has become an adaptation spiral, despite growing human and economic costs and despite current US pressure on Ukraine. They observe Ukraine’s remarkable ability to withstand Russian strikes, while questioning claims that long-range Ukrainian strikes will be able to achieve game-changing damage on Russia. Ukraine and Russia have transformed the role of energy warfare in modern conflict, drawing on low costs drones but also new forms of technological resilience that are likely to make wars longer and more dangerous.

29 mins read

The China Price

In 1971, as the international monetary system was on the brink of collapse, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally told a group of worried European finance ministers that the dollar was “our currency, but your problem.” The dollar had become that system’s official reserve currency in 1944, under the Bretton Woods agreement, making signatories subject to the whims of U.S. monetary policy. Even after Bretton Woods collapsed and many currencies floated freely, the dollar continued to dominate. In the last half century, U.S.