August 2026

Examines areas which have been cited by ‘declinist’ writers as causes of the US economic, and hence national, decline, in particular (1) deficits (2) declining shares (3) ‘systemic’ failures. Highly critical of the arguments propounded by Paul Kennedy, counters that the real source of any nation’s decline — ‘internal stagnation’ — is something from which America is not suffering. Economic or military power are not the only determinants of national power, and so decline cannot be seen against a purely economic background. Concludes that although US predominance in world affairs is not so secure as it was, “the ultimate test of a great power is in its ability to renew its power”. Director, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.