From the Archive: How the Past Shadows China’s Future

At the end of last year, editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke with the historian Odd Arne Westad about China’s complicated past and how that history shapes the way Chinese leaders see their country’s place in the world today.

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Policymakers and analysts argue over the implications of China’s rise, the extent of its ambitions, the nature of its economic influence, and the meaning of its growing military strength. Underlying these arguments is a widespread sense that where Beijing once seemed likely to slot comfortably into a U.S.-led international order, China now poses a profound challenge to American interests. And as leaders in Beijing watch Washington struggle against Iran, rankle allies and partners, and retreat from the international system it built, they sense a moment of opportunity—and are looking to their own history for the lessons, or warnings, it might hold.

No one brings more perspective to these arguments than Westad. In a series of essays in Foreign Affairs over the past few years, Westad has explored the drivers of China’s foreign policy, its approach to global power, and its fraught ties with the United States. He sees in the long arc of Chinese and global history a stark warning about the potential for greater conflict, including a war between China and the United States. He also, however, sees lessons for policymakers today about how to avert such an outcome.

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Sources:

“Sleepwalking Toward War” by Odd Arne Westad

“The Next Sino-Russian Split?” by Odd Arne Westad

“Can Cold War History Prevent U.S.-Chinese Calamity?” by Odd Arne Westad

“The Sources of Chinese Conduct” by Odd Arne Westad

“The Sources of Soviet Conduct” by George F. Kennan

“The New Cold War” by Hal Brands and John Lewis Gaddis

Decisive Encounters by Odd Arne Westad

The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism by Paul M. Kennedy

This episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview was produced by Rose Kohler and Kanishk Tharoor, with audio engineering by Todd Yeager and Marcus Zakaria and original music by Robin Hilton. Special thanks to Irina Hogan.

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